Validation of a prognostic scale of risk of death in elderly adults with acute brain infarct

Abstract

Introduction:  Acute brain infarct is responsible of a high mortality   in elderly adults. So far, there is not any predictive scale of risk of death which evaluates entirely the patient.  

Objective:  To validate a scale of risk of death, in elderly adult patients, with acute brain infarct.

 Methods:  A longitudinal and prospective study was carried out, from January 1st to December 31st, 2019. The research was performed in two stages. In a first moment, 145 patients who suffered from acute brain infarct were studied at ¨Leopoldito Martínez¨ General Teaching Hospital and in a second moment, the 120 patients from ¨Aleida Fernández Chardiet¨ Clinical Surgical Hospital. In the process the Receiver Operating Characteristics   Curve was applied, a binary logistic regression test was performed and a s correlation intraclass model was applied.

 Results:  It was established 10 as cut point. The area under the curve was 0.94, the model achieved a sensitivity of 0.97; the square root of Cox and Snell, showed values of 0.74 the square root of Nagelkerke was of 0.98, the logarithm of verisimilitude was visualized that was of – 5.545, a significant fact in the three values. The unique measures of absolute agreement showed a value of 0.86, very significant value p=0.000. 

Conclusions:  The scale to estimate scale of risk of death, in elderly adult patients, with acute brail infarct is valid.